2009 Hurricane Forcast - Above Average
- 04/02/2009
Houston, Texas—WeatherBug®, the leading provider of live, local weather information and services for consumer and professional users, released its 2009 hurricane forecast today at its 4th Annual Energy Trader 2009 Summer Outlook Seminar in Houston, Texas.
Calling for an above-average season, the WeatherBug Professional meteorological team predicts 11 to 13 named storms for the 2009 season, which officially kicks off June 1 and lasts to November 30. Six to eight named storms are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with three to four reaching Category-3 status or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds greater than 111 mph.
“While we think this hurricane season will be less active than last year, we also expect it will be more active than an average season,” said Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist at WeatherBug.
An above-average hurricane season falls in line with the cycle occurring in the Atlantic Ocean, which is 14 years into an approximate 30 year phase of above-normal water temperatures. However, the current La Nina conditions are expected to weaken and possibly become a weak El Nino during the upcoming hurricane season. El Nino creates stronger westerly winds in the upper atmosphere, which prevent tropical weather systems from developing, especially in the Gulf and the Caribbean.
“The warmer water temperatures in the North Atlantic may provide more fuel for hurricane development at high latitudes than last year and the weakening of La Nina conditions likely will reduce the number of storms from last year. However, energy companies should also pay close attention to where high pressure steering currents appear during the season,” continued Hoekzema.
A normal hurricane season consists of 10 named storms. Last year, WeatherBug successfully predicted an above average season.
“Many storms end up never hitting the continental U.S. so people assume we won’t be affected, but that’s not the case,” said Hoekzema. “Our energy sources can still be at risk when storms remain off shore, which leads to price volatility in oil and natural gas.”
Climactic conditions in the Sahara desert also affect hurricane development. For instance, below-normal rainfall in the Sahara will result in more African dust blowing offshore, which dries out the atmosphere and prevents storms from forming.
“WeatherBug will be keeping an eye on the rainfall in the Sahara desert throughout the season,” continued Hoekzema. “For now, however, there is no indication that rainfall in that area will fall short of the seasonal norm.”
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WeatherBug (http://weatherbug.com and http://weatherbugprofessional.com) is a trusted source of dynamic weather information enabling people worldwide to make more informed weather-related decisions. Millions of consumers and professional organizations, including the National Weather Service, rely on WeatherBug to make personal and mission critical decisions which safeguard lives, impact communities and improve business operations. WeatherBug is a brand of AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc. (http://aws.com).
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